Falgun Election 2082: Will Nepal Break the Cycle, or Just Repeat the Past?

If you’re part of the Nepali diaspora, your WhatsApp groups and Facebook feeds have probably been buzzing with the same line:

“Falgun is coming. Book a flight. Come home. Vote for change.”

It does sound powerful, almost like a call to arms. And in some ways, it is. Because in just five days, Nepal went through things nobody thought possible. Nineteen lives lost in a single day, the toll crossing seventy, Parliament set on fire, ministers’ houses torched, and even the Prime Minister forced to resign. The army rolled in, curfews locked people indoors, and then, out of that madness, Nepal got its first female Prime Minister, chosen on a Discord call with ten thousand people.

Yes, you read that right. Discord. Nepal. Prime Minister. All in one sentence.

For many of us, it was almost surreal to watch.  We’ve always known corruption was rotting the system, but we had also grown numb to it, shrugging, “it is what it is.” Leaders felt untouchable, too distant to challenge. But then Gen Z showed up in uniforms and backpacks, and suddenly, those “untouchables” were being dragged out of their homes.Violence, of course, is never the answer, but the message it sent was crystal clear: nobody is above accountability. Politicians aren’t gods and they’re not beyond reach.

Now, as the smoke clears, a harder question hangs in the air: what comes next? Is it realistic to believe the Falgun election will magically reset the system? Because the constitution that allowed power to be twisted in the first place is still the same. New elections will happen under that very framework. The old parties still have their networks. All the loopholes are still there.

Before we explore that, let’s rewind and then look ahead. 

Quick Recap

Let’s rewind for a moment, because those five days were such a blur it’s easy to lose track.

September 8: Hundreds of young Nepalis gathered at Maitighar to protest corruption. They expected tear gas at worst. Instead, police opened fire. By nightfall, 19 were dead, hundreds wounded.

September 9: Grief turned into fury. Crowds stormed Parliament and Singha Durbar. Politicians’ houses went up in flames. Prime Minister Oli resigned. In the chaos, prisons were opened and thousands of inmates spilled into the streets. For a moment, it felt like the country itself was breaking apart.

September 10–11: The army stepped in. Tanks and soldiers filled the streets, curfews locked people inside their homes. Gen Z were asked to choose a leader for the interim government. So they did what came naturally; they jumped on a massive Discord call and debated openly. One name kept coming up: Sushila Karki, Nepal’s first female Chief Justice, remembered for her honesty and for standing up to corrupt officials. Eventually, they ran a poll, and the majority voted for her. 

September 12: Against all odds, the youth got their demand and Sushila Karki took the oath as interim Prime Minister. A historic moment, no doubt, but also a legally fragile one.

If you want a detailed breakdown of all that happened and where we are now, check this out!

So, Did We Really Win?

Honestly, on the surface, getting Sushila Karki in there felt like a massive high-five; a total generational victory, even. She literally is integrity in a system that had none, so it just felt pure.

But then, if you poke just a tiny bit beneath that shiny surface, it's a constitutional dumpster fire.

Nepal’s constitution has rules that don’t bend easily. Article 76(1) says only a Member of Parliament from a majority party can be Prime Minister. To work around that, the President dissolved Parliament altogether. 

Then there’s another clause (Article 132) that straight-up bans former Chief Justices from holding government office. And Karki is exactly that. It’s almost as if the rule was written to block exactly this kind of appointment.

So yes, we have a Prime Minister people actually wanted. But legally, she’s standing on thin ice. If someone files a petition, the Supreme Court could undo it all in one stroke; her appointment, the dissolved Parliament, everything.

Lets say the court rules in her favor, what happens then?

Can We Change The System Now?

Alongside transparency and accountability, one of the main agendas of this protest was also that we need a directly elected PM. Since we’ve apparently “won”, is that possible now? Will our favorites like Balen, Sagar Dhakal, Sumana Shrestha be able to run independently for PM on Falgun? Hate to break it to you, but no. 

We do have a PM of our choice, but our constitution is still in place. And under it, only an MP from a majority party can be PM.

You could say why not amend the constitution? Well, Karki’s hands are pretty much tied in this case. She can’t amend the constitution on her own. She can’t even start the process, because that requires a two-thirds majority in Parliament; which, ironically, no longer exists as it was dissolved specifically to appoint her.

In short: the rules haven’t changed. The old system is still intact.

Why The Odds Are Against Independent Politicians

Some argue, “It’s fine for Balen to sit this one out. We want him as PM for five years, not just six months.” Fair. But even in six months, the rules won’t magically allow him to run for PM directly. To get there, he’d need to:

• Form a national party,
  

• Win majority seats in Parliament across the country, and
  

• Break the grip of old parties.

All in half a year. That’s about as realistic as expecting Nepal Airlines to run on time every day for a year.

So yes, we got a Prime Minister people actually wanted. But no, we didn’t get a new system. For now, the rules are still the rules, and they’re stacked in favor of the same old players.

Not the Worst Case, But Not Gold or Silver Either

Think of this revolution like a competition.

• Gold (first prize) would have been the boldest move; just ripping up the old constitution completely. Then, drafting a temporary one with direct elections for PM, clear limits on how long they can serve, a total system reset. Yeah, risky, probably a bit chaotic, but undeniably revolutionary.
  

• Silver (second prize) A little less dramatic, but still really impactful. That would've been keeping Parliament as is, but forcing those MPs to sign a binding agreement; like, right there on the spot to actually amend the constitution. That could've locked in reforms like direct PM elections, a two-term limit, and real curbs on all their ridiculous perks and privileges.
  

• Bronze (third prize) is what we actually ended up with. Parliament dissolved, Sushila Karki appointed anyway, but the same old loopholes are still intact. The system didn’t really change; it just bent for a moment.
  

• Worst case would have been martial law or foreign interference. Thankfully, we dodged that

So where does that leave us? Somewhere between relief and disappointment. It’s like winning a consolation medal. We didn't lose entirely, but we didn’t exactly change the game either.

Can Falgun Flip the Script?

Now back to the part where everyone is talking about flights.

“Falgun’s around the corner. Head home. Vote for change.”

Well, Falgun elections will still be held under the same constitution. And unless something dramatic shifts, here’s the most likely outcome: Old parties regroup, old leaders return with shiny new promises and the same cycle continues.

That’s the mirage.

But we still have hope. Gen Z has proven they don’t need political machinery to shake the system. They organized protests without party flags. They forced a Prime Minister to resign. They burned down symbols of untouchable power. Even if the elections bring back the same faces, the myth of invincibility is shattered. Politicians now know that there’s a generation watching, and ready to act.

A Glimmer of Hope

We’ve mostly been talking about what didn’t go right. But let’s not ignore what could still go right.

There’s one more possibility people keep whispering about: a brand-new party.

Is it realistic in just six months? Honestly, not really. But it’s not completely impossible either. Imagine if people like Balen, Sagar Dhakal, Sumana Shrestha and a few others who’ve earned public trust decided to team up. In the cities, they’d have a strong shot. 

But let’s not forget; elections aren’t won in the cities alone. Old parties still have their roots spread out in Rural Nepal. That’s where the traditional networks of money, influence, and loyalty still run deep. And they know exactly how to turn all of that in their favor. Building an organization that reaches all those places and challenges traditional thoughts takes years and years. 

Still, the very idea sparks hope. It tells people the story isn’t over.

Final Thoughts

September 12 was not our grand finale. It was more like half-time.

The semi-final will be fought in court, where Karki’s appointment could stand, or collapse.
The final will be in Falgun, where ballots will decide if this energy fuels actual reforms. 

So, is change really possible in six months? Probably not in the sweeping way many hoped. But dismissing this as a failure would be wrong too. Because Gen Z has already shifted the rules of the game. They’ve reminded us that politics is not untouchable, that leaders are not invincible, and that accountability is not optional.

For the diaspora, the message is clear: yes, book your flights if you can, and come vote. But more importantly, don’t just pin your hopes on one election. Support the movements. Amplify voices on social media. Keep the pressure alive until, and long after the ballots are counted.

Because this fight didn’t start on September 8, and it won’t end with Falgun either.

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